Dutton says internal polling puts Labor within reach, writes Neil Mitchell (2024)

There seems a new air of confidence around Peter Dutton and it comes from two things: the government is stumbling more by the day, and the Opposition's internal polling says they could win the next election.

It is unusual for a leader to discuss private polling but speaking to the podcast Neil Mitchell Asks Why? Dutton showed no reluctance.

"In Victoria, there are good swings in seats to us, and seats on the radar that we hadn't expected to be on the radar at this point in the cycle."

"There is a lot of encouragement for us in Victoria, a lot of encouragement for us in NSW and in WA I think is coming back to us off a pretty low base at the last election.

"I'm confident that we can win this election. I think the momentum is with us."

Asked why he was building in confidence, with the election months away, he said:

"I think the prime minister is showing no signs of improving with time in the saddle. And I think if we maintain the unity, it allows us to look like a credible alternative government.

"And I think there are two pre-conditions to win the next election.

"One is that people need to be dissatisfied enough with the current government and I think they're well and truly down that path."

"And secondly, after a first term to vote that government out, they need to be voting for us, so our policies need to hit the mark."

And there will be no "small target " strategy where the Opposition hides while the government messes it up.

"It's not like a tired ten-year-old government that's being replaced by an opposition leader that can be a small target. It's a different scenario."

Target audience

Dutton also revealed plans to focus on young voters with specific policies and a more aggressive social media strategy.

"I think that 18-to-34 demographic is difficult for the Liberal Party and hasbeen for a period of time. And I think the Labor Party and the Greens, frankly,have a much better presence on social media than what we traditionally have.

"I think we're making significant inroads so I think we can start to dilute some of that influence"

"This is why home ownership's such an important debate because if you're a renter, and this is why Labor's happy for this sort of build to rent rent for life model because people become interested in the economy when they get a mortgage and they have kids and start to think about budgeting."

Does that mean 18-34-year-old voters will be targeted directly by policy?

"Yes, definitely. I think home ownership is a particularly important aspect. I think the education system is important too, to people that age group as well. I think health is important and I think also as we saw in the 2019 election that that demographic is also influenced by whether they believe their parents and grandparents are being fairly treated or not."

"I think there are different touch points, but most definitely a target audience for us."

With all this, however, there is no plan for a pre election makeover.

A question of image

Many leaders in recent years have had the inevitable pre-election spruce up in an attempt to impress voters.

John Howard had his eyebrows trimmed and new dental work. Albanese lost weight and got a new wardrobe. Even Scott Morrison tried to look better for the cameras.

"I think I'm too far gone, Dutton said.

"I think Ron Burgundy (the character in movie Anchor Man )style if I turned up with a full head of hair tomorrow people might notice"

"I feel pretty comfortable in my own skin."

In a wide ranging interview Dutton also:

Dutton said he thought the Greens party was "dangerous" and he promised to talk to Labor about referencing each other ahead of the Greens.

There can be no doubt Dutton sees the benefit in attempting to soften, or humanise, his image and several times through the interview he referred to his years as a police officer and how it had affected him, particularly when dealing with issues involving children.

He said many Australians did not realise how serious were the security threats to the country or the surge in organised crime.

"I think there's a greater involvement of organised crime here than what people realise."

"When you see the tobacco issue with chop chop, or with vapes, and the firebombing of a shop or a store.

"When you look at the importation of cocaine or amphetamines or drugs otherwise, there's sort of an army of workers, and generally those kids who are on the street or have gone off the rails or been involved in petty crime, they're the ones who will come into contact with some of these groups, and for some of them there will be an appeal to be a part of that gang network."

"I do think drugs are a bigger scourge than we realise."